Data available through: 2020-05-11

US Charts

This data is downloaded directly from the European CDC. This data requires formating the dates and calculating the cumulative totals. If you want to the data already ‘cleaned/wrangled’, you can take it from Our World in Data who gets their data from the Eurpoean CDC. They file can be found here and is called full_data.csv; also called “All four metrics”.

This data is from the ECDC and thus updated based on Eurpoean time zone days. Because of this the datas and values do not match up with the American CDC values. However, I am sticking with the EDC data set as it is available for download; where the CDC data is not.

One important calculation is the growth rate. The growth rate is calculated as follows:

\[ \text{Growth Rate} = \frac{ \text{New-Cases}_N}{\text{New-Cases}_{N-1}} \] where \(N\) is a given day. If the growth rate is below 1 that means the number of new cases is slowing down - this is a positive sign.

I also wanted to look at the dealth percentage which I calculated as the total number of dealths divided by the total number of cases for a given day.

I am restricted the charts to show values after March 17, 2020 (first date in data set is March 18, 2020). This is when preventative measures started to increase dramatically. In addition, given the small number of cases prior to this date caused great variability in the growth rate and has multiple instances where it’s NA or equal to infinity.

Total Cases and Total Deaths

These show the cumulative total of cases and deaths.

Growth Factor and New Cases

In order to see if the pandemic is slowing down, it is helpful to look at the growth factor and the daily new cases. For both these values; we want to see a decrease in values from day to day - which indicates that less people are getting sick. Recall that a growth factor less than 1 is a positive sign that the growth of cases is slowing down. Growth factor is directly related to new cases - if daily new cases goes now the growth factor is less than 1; if daily cases goes up the growth factor is greater than one. These two charts represent the same information in two differnt ways.

There can be a lot of variability in the daily points - this is due to many different variables. On variable is the availability of tests, cases will go down if there is scarcity of tests and rise dramatically when more tests become available. One way to help get a better sense over the overall trend is by smoothing the data.

New Deaths and Death Percentage

Values for Past Week

Date Total Cases New Cases Growth Factor Total Deaths New Deaths Death Percentage
Mon, May 11, 2020 1,329,799 20,258 0.7910 79,528 734 5.980%
Sun, May 10, 2020 1,309,541 25,612 0.9501 78,794 1,614 6.017%
Sat, May 09, 2020 1,283,929 26,957 0.9502 77,180 1,510 6.011%
Fri, May 08, 2020 1,256,972 28,369 1.1758 75,670 2,239 6.020%
Thu, May 07, 2020 1,228,603 24,128 1.0120 73,431 2,353 5.977%
Wed, May 06, 2020 1,204,475 23,841 1.0552 71,078 2,144 5.901%
Tue, May 05, 2020 1,180,634 22,593 0.9047 68,934 1,252 5.839%

State Map of Growth Factor

Growth Factor - looking at states